Mumbai Risks 10% Land Loss by 2040

Mumbai is poised to face severe challenges due to climate change, with projections indicating that over 10% of its land could be inundated by 2040. This alarming forecast is part of a comprehensive study conducted by the Bengaluru-based think tank, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP).

The report, titled “Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Inundation Maps for Selected Indian Coastal Cities,” outlines the potential impacts of rising sea levels on 15 major Indian coastal cities. According to the CSTEP report, Mumbai has already experienced the most significant rise in sea levels among the cities studied, with an increase of 4.44 cm from 1987 to 2021. This trend is expected to continue, with sea levels predicted to rise by 76.2 cm by 2100, making it the highest increase among the cities analysed.

This rise will have profound implications, not only for Mumbai but also for other coastal cities such as Panaji, Chennai, Udupi, and Mangalore, where 5-10% of land area is at risk of being submerged by 2040. The study highlights that land submergence will be most severe in coastal cities like Mangalore, Haldia, Paradip, Thoothukudi, and Yanam by 2100, under high-emission scenarios. These areas, alongside Mumbai, will face significant inundation risks due to their geographical and environmental characteristics.

The impact is expected to be particularly severe on key sectors including water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and public health. Coastal features such as beaches, backwaters, and mangrove forests are also at risk, which could affect biodiversity and tourism. CSTEP’s findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard Mumbai and other vulnerable coastal cities. The report calls for enhanced resilience planning and proactive measures to address the potential impacts of rising sea levels, which threaten to reshape the urban and environmental landscape of these critical areas.